Question 1

Do high-conviction picks outperform?

Accepted Answer

Based on forward-testing across millions of institutional positions, stocks with higher conviction scores have historically delivered higher average forward returns and win rates compared to lower-conviction positions.

Question 2

What is the win rate of top conviction stocks?

Accepted Answer

The top conviction band (80-100 score) has shown the highest win rate in forward testing. Win rates increase monotonically across conviction bands from lowest to highest.

Question 3

How is the conviction backtest calculated?

Accepted Answer

HoldingsIntel uses true 1-quarter forward returns: each position's conviction score from quarter Q is matched with the actual stock return in quarter Q+1. This is not backtested curve-fitting but actual forward performance measurement.

Band	Positions	Win Rate	Avg Forward Return	Median Return	Confidence
0-20	332,005	53.8%	+3.7%	+1.4%	High
20-40	4,784,246	57.7%	+3.5%	+2.3%	High
40-60	1,277,268	58.9%	+3.6%	+2.6%	High
60-80	68,930	62.5%	+4.3%	+3.5%	High
80-100	11,143	65.1%	+5.7%	+4.7%	High
S&P 500 (benchmark)	-	78.3%	+3.5%	-	-

Conviction Backtesting